Nifty opened flat on Friday at 7956 and bounced suddenly till 8000 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined to 7927 followed by range bound consolidation between 7980-7926 before closing flat at 7954. Nifty didn’t enter our buying range of 7906-7892 as low was 7926. Let’s have a fresh look on latest charts for further scenario.
Today I am covering wave counts from last week high 8336 and read my previous report Most Probable Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty as on 02 Nov 2015 for previous wave counts.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move last week high 8336. There is no change in these wave counts and,
It seems wave (3) completed at 7997 followed by wave (4) completed at 8116 and now wave (5) is in progress from 8116. Wave (5) already achieved its minimum 38% projection after breaking below 7986 where as 61% and 100% is placed at 7906 and 7777 respectively. Wave (5) will be in extended zone after breaking 7906.
We can expect 38%-61% bounce of whole decline (from 8336 to new low) after completion of wave (5) at lower levels. Let’s have a look progress of wave (5) on separate 5 minutes chart.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 8116 which I am expecting as start of wave (5).
There is a change in wave counts on this chart because of two “Irregular Correction” types of patterns formed on Friday.
- Nifty gave a steep and straight impulsive bounce of 50 points from 7954-8000 but a correction cannot be an impulse. So, this steep bounce can be wave (c) of any Irregular Correction. Marked on chart.
- Again there is consolidation between 7980-7926 at bottom which looks like an “Irregular Correction” or Flat Correction as shown within gray circle.
So, this Irregular Correction at bottom between 7927-7980 may be inner wave (iv) completed at 7980 and (v) started. If this pattern is correct then Nifty can decline further till 7907-7863 and even till 7791 as “Irregular Correction” is mostly strong for main trend. Wave (v) will be in extended zone after breaking 7863 which can cause sharp bounce till 7980 after completion of wave (v) at lower levels.
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In my last report I mentioned that light longs can be initiated if we see 7906-7892 range for 140-250 points bounce but we didn’t get our buying range on Friday. Now, there is bit change in count as I explained above.
Now, Nifty also has possibility to decline till 7907-7863 which also can extend till 7791. And 7863-7791 is the range from where we can expect 140-250 point’s bounce. 7863-7791 is big range of 70 points so low risk entry levels and small stoploss can be calculated only when we reach near the completion of wave (v) of (5), may be somewhere within 7863-7791.
Wave (v) of (5) will be in extended zone after achieving 61% projection at 7863. Means if wave (v) completes below 7863 then there is possibility for sharp bounce till 7980 again which start of wave (v).
Note: Possibility of “Irregular Correction” at bottom will be negated if nifty opens or break above 7980.
Low Risk entry levels, Exact Stoploss and best trading opportunity can be identified only during live market hour after seeing latest wave patterns on 5 minute chart. It is difficult to calculate exact entry levels in advance in present market conditions. Those you learned and understood Elliott Wave Theory can make better use of these market conditions for intraday swing trades during live market hours.
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