Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategies of Nifty for Sep 2017 Expiry Week

| September 22, 2017

Nifty opened flat at 10139 and bounced to register day’s high 10158 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined sharply by 100 points to register day’s low 10058 followed by bounce back and finally closed 19 points down at 10121.

Yesterday, I explained that short term outlook is still bullish for bounce towards 10178-10205 as longs as Nifty is trading above 10119. 10119 was short term breakeven point and 10035 was medium term breakeven point. I suggested 10113 as fresh stoploss for all existing longs (taken n 10130-10119 range) expecting upside targets 10178-10205.  Stoploss of 10113 was triggered and Nifty declined near medium term breakeven point followed by bounce back.  Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am covering bounce from 11 Aug 2017 low 9685 and earlier waves counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis and Trading Strategy of Nifty for 20 Sep 2017 Onward

Elliott wave analysis of nifty for Sep ExpiryElliott wave analysis of nifty for Sep Expiry

Elliott wave analysis of nifty for Sep Expiry

This is 1 hour time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9685 which I am expecting as new wave upside.

The bounce from 9685-9988 is not clear and lots of repeated overlapping so I can’t identify it confidently. But there is impulsive bounce from 9861 which I can assume as some sort of wave 3. It can be main wave (3) or Inner waves (iii) which depends on the pattern of move before 9681.

(The bounce from 9685-9988 confused us last month and can confuse for some more days because we can’t calculate exact top unless we know the wave pattern of this bounce.)

If I assume the bounce from 9685-10178 as some sort of wave (iii), then 38% retracement of this wave (iii) is placed at 10056 which we can assume as next breakeven point and Nifty already bounced from this breakeven point.

And if it is really wave (iii) completed at 10178 and wave (iv) already completed at 10058 then 38%-61% projection of wave (v) is placed at 10225-10328 which is expected target range on upside. Now, let’s have separate look at decline from 10178 on lowest possible time frame.

Elliott wave analysis of nifty for Sep Expiry

Elliott wave analysis of nifty for Sep Expiry

This is again 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from 10178 which I expecting as start of wave (iv).It seems some sort of corrective pattern completed from 10178-10058 followed by a good bounce.

And within the bounce from 10058, it seems wave (a or 1) completed from 10058-10100, wave (b or 2) completed from 10100-10084 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 10084.

38%-61% retracement of wave (a or 1) is placed at 10083-10074 which is expected targets range on downside if Nifty decline straightway from present levels.

38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 10118. So, 10118 is the breakeven point below which we can further decline towards 10083-10074 which further can extend below 10058.

Conclusion

The overall outlook is still indicating one more high above 10178, may be towards 10225-10328 and 10056 is the medium term breakeven point. But there is bit confusion because of overlapping pattern from 9685-9988.

For short term/Intraday, 10118 is the immediate breakeven point below which we can expect further decline towards 10083-10074 which further can extend below 10058.

Trading Point of View:

  1. Nifty if breaks 10118 (even touch 10117), then intraday shorts can be taken with stoploss of 15 points expecting targets towards 10083-10074. But avoid trade if Nifty already decline near 10083 at opening.
  1. Nifty if decline in 10083-10058 then Nifty 10100 Sep call can be bought in light quantity without stoploss till further updates.

Note: Those who are trading based on my report must follow the stoploss strictly. I always suggest trades near breakeven point where stoploss is small and there is good risk reward, avoiding stoploss can result in huge loss because my stoploss is already a breakeven point.

And the aim of my trading strategies is to avoid huge loss first and then expecting good risk reward. I plan the trade in such a way that even if 7 out of 100 trade goes wrong then also we must in overall profit. So, avoiding stoploss will change the whole purpose and scenario. If you are not comfortable with my stoploss then you must manage trade by your own understanding.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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