Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Srategy for 01 March 2018

| March 1, 2018

Nifty opened lower at 10488, registered low 10461 and traded with positive bias for rest of the day with range bound volatility. Nifty traded in 10535-10461 range for whole day and closed 61 points down at 10492.

Yesterday, the overall wave counts were suggesting one more decline for low below 10276, most probably from 10637-10829 range. For short term, bounce towards 10662-10740 was expected with 10562-10520 as short term support and 10520 as breakeven point and stoploss for longs.

Trading strategy was to hold existing longs with stoploss of 10509 but Nifty opened lower below stoploss and stoploss was triggered. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering bounce from low 10276 and earlier wave counts are explained in my earlier analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis and Trading Strategy of Nifty for 28 Feb 2018

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 30 Minute Chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 30 Minute Chart

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 10276 which I had marked as end of wave (A) or (C).

It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 10276-10637, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 10637-10302 as Double Zigzag Correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress. Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 10663-10748 which is the normal range for completion of wave (c or 3).

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed at 10429, (ii) completed at 10341 and wave (iii) may be completed at 10631 and (iv) may be in progress.

Wave (iv) retraced deeper than 38% which is the point of confusion but I am not able to identify any other pattern. Maximum limit for wave (iv) is 10429 [end of wave (i)]

Let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (iv) on separate chart if we can identify something.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 5 Minute Chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 5 Minute Chart

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from 10631 which I am expecting as start of wave (iv).

It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 10631-10539, (b or 2) completed from 10566 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress. Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 10474-10452.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is already completed and wave (v) may be in progress. 61%-100% projection for wave (v) is placed at 10470-10430 whereas end of wave (iii) is 10461. So, 10461-10430 is minimum target range for completion of wave (v).

But wave (v) will be extended because it needs to complete above 61% projection. So, there must be sharp decline towards 10535 if it is really wave (v) of (C) started from 10535. Any delay in bouncing above 10535 can indicate further weakness.


There is no major change in overall wave counts and outlook, overall personality of the bounce from low 10276 is not suggesting any bigger reversal for new life time high and possibility of one more low below 10276 is still there in coming days, either from present levels or from 10637-10829 range.

For very short term, Nifty is expected to decline towards 10461-10430 range followed by a small or big bounce. If Nifty bounces sharply to break 10535 then it can extend the bounce further to break above 10631, otherwise if Nifty fails to break above 10535 within 3-4 hours after registering low then further weakness is expected.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

According to conditions on charts, the trade can be planned and managed based on the conditions as I explained in the conclusion. Trade can be initiated based on levels but we need to observe the personality of pattern of today’s move to manage it further.

According to conditions, Nifty 10500 March Call can be bought in 10460-10430 range using stoploss of 10427 and hold the trade for intraday. Observe today’s move to manage the trade. Nifty if bounces sharply after registering today’s low and breaks above 10535 then hold the trade for next day. Otherwise exit the trade Intraday if Nifty consolidates below 10535 for 2-3 hours.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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