Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for Budget Day

| February 27, 2015

Nifty opened Gap up today as I expected because of smaller wave’s pattern formed at the bottom yesterday and also bounced sharply exactly as per expectations but it bounced beyond my expectations. I expected a decline followed by sharp rise but bounce has gone extended. Tomorrow, 28 Feb 2015 is Union Budget day which is most important event and Nifty will be opened for couple of hours tomorrow. That’s why I am posting Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for budget day.

Let’s have a look on charts:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Budget Day

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Budget Day

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 30 Jan high of 8996. Nifty is moving in corrective pattern from last one month with frequent complex moves and confusing the majority of analysts. I succeeded to identify smaller moves in between but there is still question mark on positional move.

The decline from 8996 to 8473 is definitely an “abc” but bounce after 8473 till now still have question marks. Some of observations based on Personalities of waves are:

  1. Overlapping of waves at bottom (shown in light blue box) are still warning cautions for decline below 8473 again. We cannot ignore the possibilities for good decline unless we identify any other clear wave’s pattern.
  1. There is formation of a type of Complex correction at last top in a parallel wedge pattern and we also seen a clean break out from pattern today. Though, I am not able to identify the type of pattern clearly, I just assumed by identifying a wedge. So, here we cannot ignore the possibilities for some upside.

Let’s see the today’s move on 5 minute chart:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Budget Day

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Budget Day

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty showing today’s intraday move. It was difficult to identify inner waves within this move as every wave seems highly extended here and a 20 points of wave 1 seems delivering a 200 points impulse. Still I tried to counts waves on chart as shown. It seems an impulse is about to complete.

Conclusion:

Overall, pattern on chart is not fully clear and is not safe for trading decision yet. And these conditions are normal before any big event like union budget. On last year budget, nifty declined 80 points after opening followed a bounce of 280 points and then again decline of 200 points and closed flat after 250 points move either side or I predicted a 500 points move accurately after budget.  Patience will reward us if we wait for a clean opportunity and Nifty will definitely show a clean pattern after budget.

But I am still cautious for decline below 8473 once personally.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (8)

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  1. KAMAL KANT says:

    Dear Deepak,

    I understand that you send daily report by email.

    I would be interested to receive the daily report, let me know the charges if any

    Thanks

  2. Gadi pande says:

    Hi sir, no updates for 28th post budget?

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Pande Ji,

      I don’t post reports on my website daily but send to my clients by email daily. And I will update Elliott wave analysis of Nifty by tomorrow night if I do.

  3. Jigar says:

    Hi, Deepak Kumar, Greetings,

    Is Nifty about to replicate the pattern of the “i-ii” for the “iii-iv” within the lower degree inner wave 3 ?

    21-11-2013 to 03-02-2014 (2.5 months) : 5986(4)-6409(5)-6150(a)-6356(b)-5956(c) : down move (b-c) being ~90% retracement of the upmove (4-5)
    06-01-2015 to 20-03-2015? (2.5 months)?: 8050(4)-8996(5)-8475(a)-8950(b)?-8100(c) ?: down move (b-c) being ~90% retracement of the upmove (4-5)

    Wave “b” seems to be longer-irregular in both the the time-ranges/wave-counts.

    Note: Referred your projection of iii-iv (~9000-8100) waves within “lower degree innner wave 3” in the report “The Latest Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty as on 27 Jan 2015 | January 27, 2015”

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Jigar Ji,

      I apologize to say that I am not able to understand your query as it is difficult to understand Elliott Wave counts just by figure. It need labels on chart to understand Elliott Wave counts.

      • Jigar says:

        Agree Deepakji.
        Is it fine with you if I send you the charts with (attempted) labeling in .png file created, using ms-paint, on sweeglu@gmail.com for your review?
        Chart prepared using investing.com, daily bars between july-2013 to till-date.

        Thanks for the quick response. Appreciate it.

  4. ashok says:

    move after 8720 looks like some kind of 3rd and still continueing today 28th feb. 8669to 8757-1…..8757to8717 -2……8717to8830 -3(1)…8830to8802-3(2)….8802 to 8819-3(3).and presently 4th running in zigzag. please respond if time permits on my e mail or here on your blog.

  5. KAMAL KANT says:

    Dear Deepak.,

    Is there any rough level of top from today’s close for nifty?

    Do you see any wild swings tomorrow on budget day?