Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for Budget Day

| February 27, 2015

Nifty opened Gap up today as I expected because of smaller wave’s pattern formed at the bottom yesterday and also bounced sharply exactly as per expectations but it bounced beyond my expectations. I expected a decline followed by sharp rise but bounce has gone extended. Tomorrow, 28 Feb 2015 is Union Budget day which is most important event and Nifty will be opened for couple of hours tomorrow. That’s why I am posting Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for budget day.

Let’s have a look on charts:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Budget Day

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Budget Day

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 30 Jan high of 8996. Nifty is moving in corrective pattern from last one month with frequent complex moves and confusing the majority of analysts. I succeeded to identify smaller moves in between but there is still question mark on positional move.

The decline from 8996 to 8473 is definitely an “abc” but bounce after 8473 till now still have question marks. Some of observations based on Personalities of waves are:

  1. Overlapping of waves at bottom (shown in light blue box) are still warning cautions for decline below 8473 again. We cannot ignore the possibilities for good decline unless we identify any other clear wave’s pattern.
  1. There is formation of a type of Complex correction at last top in a parallel wedge pattern and we also seen a clean break out from pattern today. Though, I am not able to identify the type of pattern clearly, I just assumed by identifying a wedge. So, here we cannot ignore the possibilities for some upside.

Let’s see the today’s move on 5 minute chart:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Budget Day

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Budget Day

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty showing today’s intraday move. It was difficult to identify inner waves within this move as every wave seems highly extended here and a 20 points of wave 1 seems delivering a 200 points impulse. Still I tried to counts waves on chart as shown. It seems an impulse is about to complete.

Conclusion:

Overall, pattern on chart is not fully clear and is not safe for trading decision yet. And these conditions are normal before any big event like union budget. On last year budget, nifty declined 80 points after opening followed a bounce of 280 points and then again decline of 200 points and closed flat after 250 points move either side or I predicted a 500 points move accurately after budget.  Patience will reward us if we wait for a clean opportunity and Nifty will definitely show a clean pattern after budget.

But I am still cautious for decline below 8473 once personally.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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