Nifty opened Gap Up today and traded with strength without filling the gap giving rise of 160 points from yesterday’s close. I expected minimum bounce till 8405 and maximum till 8540 in yesterday Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty. Nifty managed to close near extreme high of the day at 8492 after giving low of 8380. Lets have a look on current charts.
This is Hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering move after Feb high 8996 which I am expecting as start of wave (4).
A casual look suggests, wave 4 is progressing as complex correction (most probably Triple Zigzag) and we still needs confirmation for it. There is an “abc” wave from 8996 to 8473 followed by an Irregular wave (X1) from 8473 to 9117 and there is a start of next “abc” cycle from 9117 which is in progress and already breached the end of 1st “abc” cycle after breaking below 8473.
In 2nd “abc” cycle, waves (a) and (b) are completed and (c) started from 8788 which already achieved 100% projection after breaking below 8283 whereas 123% is placed 8163 which may or may not be achieved. We need to see the progress of wave (c) started from 8788 on separate chart to see its progress.
Nifty can give minimum bounce till upper trend line shown on chart after completion of wave (c) as no part of 2nd “abc” cycle should be above line joining wave (X1) and (X2). Thus (X2) needs to complete above that upper trend line in case of Triple Zigzag, otherwise nifty will achieve new high if this correction ends as Double Zigzag. The exact pattern will be cleared soon.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 8627 which I am expecting as the start of wave (c) of 2nd “abc” cycle.
Again a casual look suggests that wave 1, 2 and 3 of (c) are completed till 8269 and wave 4 is in progress. Wave 3 ended before 161%, thus not extended and we can expect wave 5 as extended.
Wave 4 retraced much more than 38% and is almost near end of wave 1 (8540). These conditions are not normal but possibilities cannot be ignored as I explained in my last reports that, “The pattern after 8996 which I am expecting as wave 4 seems like a complex correction and inner waves of a complex correction are often confusing and follows extended rules”. We need to be cautious here till we find any clear signal.
But there is possibility of a corrective pattern at bottom which suggest another story. Let have a look on separate 5 minutes chart covering move from low 8269.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after recent low 8327.
Here, sudden bounce from 8327 to 8405 was a simple zigzag “abc” wave but the decline from 8405 to new low 8269 also looks like an “abc” wave rather than an impulse or Ending Diagonal Triangle. And Nifty bounced above 8405 again which created the possibilities of an “Irregular Correction” at bottom here. The move after low 8269 is also sudden and carrying the personalities of an Impulse.
So, move from 8327 to 8405 as “abc” wave may be wave (A) followed by another “abc” wave downwards from 8405 to 8269 as Irregular wave (B) followed by an impulsive wave upwards that can be wave (C) of an Irregular Correction.
It seems, inner wave (v) of (C) is in progress. Wave (iii) of (C) is carrying gap and is below 161%, thus not extended. So, we can always expect wave (v) as extended above 61%. Wave (v) achieved minimum projection of 61% at 8499 where as 70% and 100% are placed at 8513 and 8562 respectively which may or may not be achieved.
If it is really a progress of an Irregular correction then we can see the levels below new low 8269 again and completion of this correction is very near may be between 8513-8562.
The scenario on charts is still week suggesting the possibilities for new low. But as Nifty closed at extreme high is suggesting a Gap Up tomorrow. Any trade should be done after confirmation only with strict stoploss as this bigger correction started from 8996 is completed at 8269, we can see new high soon.
Any short position can be taken only if Nifty opens gap up and failed to sustain above opening price after 9:30 AM and day’s high must be the stoploss. If Nifty sustains above opening price after 9:30 then avoid selling and try to identify latest wave’s pattern to take position. Trade must be light and with strict stoploss, never lose heavy if I prove wrong in identifying correct pattern.