Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 30 March 2016 – Importance of Learning

| March 30, 2016

Nifty opened flat today at 7606 and bounced sharply till 7645 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined again to register day’s low 7582. Then again Nifty bounced by 70 points to register day’s high 7652 followed by decline below 7590 again before closing 18 points down at 7597. Overall it was a huge volatile day with repeated swings between 7590-7650.

Yesterday I suggest buying on Dips with exact stoploss 7585 and change stoploss to 7614 if Nifty break above 7635. Nifty bounced from 7605 to 7645 in morning but then our modified stoploss 7614 triggered and Nifty also breaks below 7585. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am showing Nifty move from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825. Earlier counts you can read in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for Budget Day 29 Feb 2016 Onward. 

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering move from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825.

Elliott Wave Analysis 30 March 2016

Elliott Wave Analysis 30 March 2016

As I explained yesterday, it seems wave (1) completed from 6825-7094 and wave (2) completed from 7094-6969 then wave (3) started from 6969. Wave (3) started slow but extended sharply later with just 23% correction in between.

The bounce from 6969 is straight with just a 23% correction in between and with unfilled gaps. So, it is difficult to identify waves confidently. It may be wave (3) or inner wave [(iii) of 3] completed at 7539 and wave (4) or inner wave [(iv) of 3] completed at 7405. Now there are 02 conditions on chart: –

  1. If it is wave (4) completed at 7405 then wave (5) already achieved its minimum 38% projection but pattern is not completely clear. Nifty can give 38%-61% correction of whole bounce from 6825-7749 after completion of wave (5) in this case. 38%-61% retracement from last high 7749 is placed at 7396-7177.
  1. If it is inner wave (iv) of (3) completed at 7405 then wave (v) of (3) also achieved its minimum 38% projection but pattern is not completely clear. Nifty can give 23%-38% correction of whole bounce from 6825-7749 after completion of wave (v) of (3) in this case. 23%-38% retracement from last high 7749 is placed at 7530-7396.

As there are 02 possibilities on above 30 minutes chart, we need to analyze and concentrate on decline from 7749 to take any trading decision.

Elliott Wave Analysis 30 March 2016

Elliott Wave Analysis 30 March 2016

This is 5 minutes time bar of Nifty covering decline from 28 March 2016 high 7749.

It may be wave (3) completed at 7582, wave (4) completed at 7652 followed by start of wave (5). Wave (5) seems within inner wave (iii) as shown on chart. 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 7588-7548 but end of wave (3) is 7582.

So, we can expect a decline till 7582-7548 range but Nifty should not even touch 7626 before 7582 for this possibility as wave (iv) can not overlap wave (ii) and 7626 is start of wave (ii). Breaking above 7626 can also show levels above 7652.

And If Nifty achieves 7582-7548 range then we can expect some bounce from there. Bounce can be very small or big which can be calculated only when this impulse completes below 7582 after seeing the pattern.

Conclusion:

After seeing the latest charts, Nifty have possibility to decline till 7582-7548 range but Nifty should not even touch 7626 before 7582 for this possibility as explained above. Breaking above 7626 can also show levels above 7652.

And If Nifty achieves 7582-7548 range then we can expect some bounce from there. Bounce can be very small or big which can be calculated only when this impulse completes below 7582 after seeing the pattern.

Any trade can be decided only during live market hours based on above explained conditions.

Nifty is suitable and safe for Intraday trading in present conditions (from last 15-20 days) and it is not safe to decide a trading strategy a day in advance. But Nifty is giving good intraday swing trading opportunities to those who have knowledge of EWT and can identify waves during market hours. Just like,

  1. For 28 March waves were suggesting minimum 7733 and later move we could identify only once it achieve minimum 7733 by seeing the pattern formed there. But Nifty achieved 7733 at opening only and then decline 160 points same day. That decline could be caught during markets hours only as we didn’t know which pattern it is going to make at 7749 a day in advance.
  1. For 29 March waves were suggesting some small or big bounce from 7585 and we were buying Nifty with stoploss 7585 and changing stoploss to 7614 once Nifty break above 7635. Nifty bounced from 7605 to 7645, we were getting 30-40 points with 20-25 points risk and then our modified stoploss 7614 triggered. We can conclude or predict only the next first step in advance, 2nd step can be concluded only when first step is either completed or negated which can be identified during live markets hours only. Today Nifty gave many up down swings with clear corrective pattern during market hours which could be converted into low risk profitable trades.
  1. And for tomorrow again, We can just conclude a first possibility which shows Nifty can decline till 7582-7548 with some conditions but we can’t conclude further scenario in advance at present. Even we can expect minimum 7582 only as we don’t know where below 7582 that impulse is going to complete or what pattern it will make if 7626 touched. Later outlook can be concluded only when first condition is either achieved or negated.

So, it is compulsory to learn Elliott Wave Theory to catch good trading opportunities yourself. Market is not same every time and it never gives positional trading opportunities every day. My advance reports can provide you very next scenario, level, pattern or trade but if that next levels, trade or pattern is achieved or negated then further levels or opportunities you need to identify yourself.

Any positional trades and levels can be calculated well in advance with Elliott Wave Theory which we caught perfectly many times but market is not suitable for positional trades every time. It is difficult to predict major part in advance when market is range bound or consolidating and 70%-80% time markets remains in consolidation.

In consolidation phases, only intraday trades are suitable which can be identified by counting smaller waves on 5 minutes charts and same can be identified during market hours only. So, one must develop the skills to identify Elliott waves for successful, confident and profitable trading experience.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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