Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 22 Oct 2014

| October 21, 2014

Today’s analysis report is bit interesting for learning purpose. It is about how to act and analyze with probabilities when you are confused with pattern and not fully confident with counts. I am analyzing Nifty from recent low of 7724 which is end of wave 4 and start of wave 5 of expected Ending Diagonal in my previous reports.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for All time Frames Dated 18 Oct 2014

Nifty can Show 8380 before breaking below 7723

So, let me start with the charts: –

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move from recent low of 7724.

I am taking move from 7724 to 7905 as wave (0) to (iii) by seeing the Gap and steepness of move as it is difficult to identify wave (i) and (ii) in clear pattern. You can refer topic “Reading Gaps and Steep Bars” in Chapter-9.

Further I am assuming wave (iv) completed at 7857 and wave (v) at 7934 which is just above 38% extension.

Remember: I am not fully confident with these counts as there are confusions in identifying wave (i) and (ii). And there are possibilities that 7934 may be just end of wave (iii) that I assumed as end of wave (v). As I am not fully confident, I decided to wait till I find clear pattern.

Now, at the end I am identifying a possibility of impulsive followed by corrective (marked in blue box), So, I would like to see it closely if I can find something. See the Chart below: –

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis

It is again 5 minutes time bar chart but covering only intraday move of 21 Oct 2014.

If I see closely after intraday low of 7874, I can identify an impulsive from 7874 to 7930 followed by ABC correction from 7930 to 7905. I am taking 7874 as point 0 as it is end of small down trend and start of new uptrend.

Now, this impulsive followed by ABC correction can either be taken as waves A and B or waves 1 and 2. Possibilities of wave A and B are very less as next wave C is just 50% of A but already breached previous top. In uptrend, Wave C can go above previous top in “Irregular Corrections” by possibilities are very rare. So, I can assume this impulsive followed by corrective as wave 1 and 2.

Further, If this move from 7874-7930-7905 is wave  1 and 2, then 3 has to extend minimum 100% of 1 and maximum extension can be anywhere between 461%-561%. I am expecting minimum extension of wave 3 till now between 100%-161%. 100%, 138% and 161% are placed at 7961, 7982 and 7995 respectively.  Remember, 100%-161% extension is minimum for wave 3.

Even if, this move is A and B rather than 1 and 2, then also next wave C has to be at least 100% of A. Thus, 7961 is possible in both cases.

Other Rough calculation

If wave from 7874 to 7930 is wave 1, then roughly we can expect whole impulsive 3 times of wave 1. Wave 1 is from 7874-7930=56 points. Roughly we can estimate whole impulse as 56×3=168, thus we can expect 7874+168= 8042.

Note: This analysis is a try to predict further price movement when I am are not clear with previous pattern. Waves can change pattern anytime, Just try to learn and watch what happens next. 

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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