Nifty is moving in 8300-8450 range from last 10-12 sessions after sharp rise of 600 plus points. Previously Nifty was range bound because of Ending Diagonal and now declining in Complex Correction pattern. Next probabilities on charts:
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8290. Nifty was moving in Ending Diagonal Pattern which is completed at 8454 and started declining after high. Nifty is declining from last 3 sessions in Complex Correction formation (Triple Zigzag expected) but this correction yet not achieved its minimum lower levels. The correction after the completion of Ending Diagonal generally touch or break below its lower line but Nifty not even touched lower line yet.
So, possibilities of lower levels for this correction are still possible.
Let us see the correction part from top closely on 5 minutes time bar chart:
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering declining move after high of 8454.
If we see this chart casually, one possibility show that the whole Complex Correction (abc-x-abc-x-abc) is completed after seeing the upper black line and black marking (x)-(a)-(b)-(c). (Black line and black x-abc counts are shown for possibility only).
But if we see previous chart showing whole Ending Diagonal and Correction from top, this correction yet not achieved its minimum lower levels. So, we can’t ignore the possibilities of lower levels again, may be 2nd wave (x) is not yet completed and last cycle of ABC is still pending. Also, link wave (x) within complex correction doesn’t carry any particular personality and it is often confusing.
There is one more condition that support decline below the low once again, shown on below chart:
This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty showing move after today’s low 8353. If we see the pattern, the up move after today’s low looks like 3-3-5 ABC correction rather than waves 1, 2 and 3. And if it is 3-3-5 correction then 1 more leg below today’s low 8353 may be there.
We must be cautious for one more decline below 8353 after analyzing all conditions on all charts. But Nifty should not break above the top of 1st (x) before the low. Means 2nd (x) should not breach the top of 1st (x). Top of 1st (x) is 8450.
Or we can say, there are possibilities for Nifty to decline below 8353 once again without breaking above 8450. Pattern will be failure if Nifty managed to break above 8450.