Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 21 Nov 2014

| November 20, 2014

Nifty is moving in 8300-8450 range from last 10-12 sessions after sharp rise of 600 plus points. Previously Nifty was range bound because of Ending Diagonal and now declining in Complex Correction pattern.  Next probabilities on charts:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8290. Nifty was moving in Ending Diagonal Pattern which is completed at 8454 and started declining after high. Nifty is declining from last 3 sessions in Complex Correction formation (Triple Zigzag expected) but this correction yet not achieved its minimum lower levels. The correction after the completion of Ending Diagonal generally touch or break below its lower line but Nifty not even touched lower line yet.

So, possibilities of   lower levels for this correction are still possible.

Let us see the correction part from top closely on 5 minutes time bar chart:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering declining move after high of 8454.

If we see this chart casually, one possibility show that the whole Complex Correction (abc-x-abc-x-abc) is completed after seeing the   upper black line and black marking (x)-(a)-(b)-(c). (Black line and black x-abc counts are shown for possibility only).

But if we see previous chart showing whole Ending Diagonal and Correction from top, this correction yet not achieved its minimum lower levels. So, we can’t ignore the possibilities of lower levels again, may be 2nd wave (x) is not yet completed and last cycle of ABC is still pending. Also, link wave (x) within complex correction doesn’t carry any particular personality and it is often confusing.

There is one more condition that support decline below the low once again, shown on below chart:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty

This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty showing move after today’s low 8353. If we see the pattern, the up move after today’s low looks like 3-3-5 ABC correction rather than waves 1, 2 and 3. And if it is 3-3-5 correction then 1 more leg below today’s low 8353 may be there.

Conclusion:

We must be cautious for one more decline below 8353 after analyzing all conditions on all charts. But Nifty should not break above the top of 1st (x) before the low. Means 2nd (x) should not breach the top of 1st (x). Top of 1st (x) is 8450.

Or we can say, there are possibilities for Nifty to decline below 8353 once again without breaking above 8450. Pattern will be failure if Nifty managed to break above 8450.

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About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (5)

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  1. Aaditya Rana says:

    Dear admin,
    pl help me with two of my basic question about EW.
    1) suppose wave 1 is 100 pts then is it necessary for wave 3 to be at least 161% of wave 1 i.e. 162 pts to be categorise as extended. i need to know that if wave 3 is 150 % of wave 1 then would it not still be called as extended wave?
    2) Is it a rule that if wave 2 is about 72% of wave 1 then wave 4 can never be again 72% of wave 3?Is i compulsory to have either of wave 2 or wave 4 smaller at 23% to 38% if one of them if 72%.

  2. Aaditya Rana says:

    Dear Admin,
    today , nifty threw a ball in soup and now i have serious doubt if we are still in ED.
    yesterday it was almost impossible for anyone including me but now it is very easy for me to say now that ED got over at 8455 and from low of 8353 some thing else is playing out.
    i think u need to give a serious lesson here about ED , every one especially me needs to know that if ED was over at 8455 then has it fulfilled the rule by correcting to 8353.
    i mean nifty did not surely reached its starting point at 8290 but it even missed the wave 4 low of this ED at 8320.

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Aaditya,

      Nifty fulfilled every rule, but it was my error in identifying. Human Judgement Error. I you read the report carefully I identified the possibilities of completion of correction and breakout but ignored it because of other general condition. It is the past of analysis, we are not 100% perfect and we make mistakes.

      And about lessons, EWT is a big subject and can’t explain every condition here. I wrote 400 A4 size pages to prepare my book on EWT and at last summarized it into 65 pages, still I need to send daily analysis reports for 2 month to make them understand better. So, EWT can not explain here in comments.

      Next possibility I Will show in next report!

      • Aaditya Rana says:

        Dear admin,
        thanks for replying to my comment.
        i have posted 2 more question about EW, if possible please reply them also.

  3. prashant bhatia says:

    Dear sir, nifty crosses 8450, kindly update.