Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 21 Jan 2015

| January 21, 2015

Nifty opened Gap up today and traded with strength whole day.  Nifty opened at 8575 and consolidated in 8600-8590 range for first 3 hours and then bounced gradually to register the day’s high of 8707 and finally closed 144 points up at 8695. Let us see what charts are suggesting.

21 Jan 2015 2

This is 15 hourly chart of Nifty covering move after 4 Dec 2014 high of 8626. The sharp down move from   8626 to 7963 was a previous doubt if it was an Impulsive (5 wave’s move) or Corrective (3 wave’s move).  This down wave from 8626 to 7963 was only hesitation to predict next wave confidently.

  1. If this down wave from 8626 to 7963 is an impulse then next move may be (ABC) as there is no possibility for single impulse downside and there may be 61% to 100% decline again from highs. No confirmation of high yet.
  1. If this move is (ABC) then there are other possibilities of start of another Impulse or Ending Diagonal from 7961 that can take Nifty to 9303 to 10131 in coming days.

For next move after 7961,

  • Move from 7963 to 8364 can be taken as wave (1 or A)
  • Move from 7364 to 8066 can be taken as wave (2 or B)
  • Wave (3 or C) is started from 8066. 161% projection for this wave is placed at 8737 and 170% placed at 8748. There is no minimum limit for this wave; it can go anywhere 100% to 461%. So, we need to identify internal waves of wave (3 or C) for further possibilities.

21 Jan 2015 1

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8066. By seeing the present structure it seems,

  • Wave (1) completed from 8065.89 to 8355.90 as Impulsive
  • Wave (2) completed from 8355.90 to 8236.75 as “abc” (Double Zigzag) corrective that corrected wave (1) by just 40%.
  • Wave (3) completed started from 8236.70 to 8526.84 which projected exactly 100% of wave 1. Thus wave (3) is not extended and next wave 5 can go extended to achieve minimum 61% projection.
  • Wave (4) completed from 8526.84 to 8453 which corrected wave (3) by 23%.
  • Wave (5) started from 8452 and we can expect it as extended. So, minimum projection for wave 5 should be 61% which is placed 8737 and 100% placed at 8913.

Note: Wave (3) is just 100% of wave 1 just by fractions of points. I calculated by using even decimal numbers I found on chart. Exact 100% projection comes at 8526.7 where as exact high shown on my chart was 8626.84. So it is just 0.10 points above 100%. So if by any means because of incorrect high/lows on chart this wave is not 100% then it can also be just inner wave (i) of (3) and we can see very higher levels later.

If I take wave (3) completed at 8570 which is at 123% projection then next correction from 8570.40 to 8532.25 is just 12% which is again not normal (but possible for inner waves of 3).

Conclusion:

Charts are suggesting both possibilities for higher levels till 8737, 8913, 9303 or 10131 based on different conditions and there is also a possibility of 400 to 700 points correction as explained on charts. Long term view is still extremely bullish for 9303 to 10000 in coming month. So, both short term longs and shorts can be taken after identifying small internal waves with small stoploss. Avoid holding any big positions either side.

Seeing the last steepness, trend is still up and there is no sign of reversal yet.

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Note for Students:

As I mentioned earlier and always advice, these reports are for training purpose where I try to show you how to find different probabilities observing wave’s cycles, wave’s personalities and wave’s calculations. The reality is that, no one can predict every move of market perfectly. So, never be over confident when our prediction goes right and never be demoralized when our prediction goes wrong. Always be neutral and keep learning from every result.

Our failures teach us better than our success. Which is the reason I always advice every one that “Avoiding trading when you are learning”. Or trade light only with strict stoploss. There will be failures to teach you lessons but don’t lose most of your money before learning. And trade only on your own convictions, never trade on others or my views. You can’t catch every market moves so keep patience and wait for perfect opportunities, never trade when you are confused. Market never gives opportunities every day.

Keep learning and keep observing. Who knows, you might be better analyst than me some days later

Observation

21 Jan 2015

The market move of 16 Jan and 19 Jan 2015 I was not able to understand that was the reason I was not confirmed of the next move. I will explain about this move later if I come to any conclusion.

This EW analysis report of Nifty is a part of 02 months FREE service for my book subscribers for training support.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (1)

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  1. Aaditya Rana says:

    dear admin, Its true market can do any thing.But if we cannot even be sure of highs and lows by nifty, then its very scary.
    i am submitting highs and lows as noted by me and these are not taken from charts, these figures are taken on the actual trading day from the trading software on their real trading days.
    software which i use is nest and its better than the odin platform.
    low 8065.45, then high 8356.65, then low 8236.65, then high was 8527.10, then low was 8452.25
    with regards
    regards.