Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 19 April 2018 Onward

| April 18, 2018

Nifty opened bit higher at 10578 an bounced further to register day’s high 10594 but failed to sustain at those levels and decline sharply by more than 80 points to register day’s low 10509 and finally closed 22 points down at 10526.

Yesterday, short term outlook was bullish with 10454-10388 as short term support range and 10592-10652 was expected target on upside but decline of minimum 120-180 points was expected from 10592-10652 range.

Buying of suitable Puts of April Expiry was suggested in 10592-10652 range using stoploss some points above 10652 expecting minimum 120-180 points decline. Nifty declined by more than 80 points from 10592 and puts may have been in some profit as decline was sharp. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am covering decline after all time high 11171 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last All Time Frames analysis report Nifty is Still Bullish for Medium and Long Term – Fresh EW Analysis on All Time Frames

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 5 Hourly Chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 5 Hourly Chart

This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 11171 which I had marked as end of inner wave (b) of {iv of 3 of [v] of [3] of (iii) of (3)} on larger time frame. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave (1) completed at 10979, (2) completed at 11117, (3) completed at 10276, (4) completed at 10637 and wave (5) may be completed at 9951 or still in progress.

Wave 5 achieved 61%-100% projection and already a highly extended wave but its pattern is not clear. So, we can’t say confidently if wave 5 completed or still in progress. If wave 5 is already completed then 38%-61% retracement of this whole impulse (from 11171-9951) is placed at 10417-10704. Nifty achieved 10594 till now.

Now, we are not confident if downward impulse already completed at 9951 or still in progress. So, we need to concentrate on progress of bounce started from 9951 to calculate immediate further moves.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 30 minute Chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 30 minute Chart

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 9951 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (A or 1) completed from 9951-10229, wave (B or 2) completed from 10229-10111 as Irregular Correction and wave (C or 3) may be completed from 10111-10594 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 10480-10409. So, 10480-10409 is immediate support on downside and 10409 is breakeven point below which we can expect further decline.

Let’s have a separate look at decline from 10594 on lowest time frame to calculate immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 5 minute Chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 5 minute Chart

This is 5 minute time Bar chart of Nifty covering decline from high 10594 which I am expecting as the start of small or big correction after completion of wave (C or 3).

The decline from 10594-10509 is very sharp which generally looks like a 3 wave’s move I marked as wave [A or 1], [B or 2] and [C or 3]. But this decline is very sharp consisting of only 12-15 candles, so there is low confidence in these counts.

From low 10509, it seems wave (a or 1) completed from 10509-10541, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 10541-10526 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress. Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 10558-10565 whereas 161% projection is placed at 10577.

If the bounce started from 10526 is wave (c) then it may not project more than 161% (above 10577) but one more high above 10594 is possible if this bounce is wave (3).

Conclusion

For long term, Nifty is still bullish and has long way to go as explained in my last “All Time Frames” report but we are not sure if bottom is already made or still pending. Nifty can bounce from present levels also and Maximum estimated bottom range is 9800-9600 based on Fibonacci retracements.

For short term, 10480-10409 is fresh immediate support range on downside and decline towards this support is possible in next sessions. 10577 can be used as stoploss for existing shorts, breaking above 10577 can results in one more high above 10594.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while planning next trade.

Trading Points of View:

Those who bought April Puts today in 10592-10652 range can hold the same with trailing stoploss of 10579 (above 10577). Book part profit or trailing stoploss after seeing 120 points decline from 10594. Breaking below 10409 can initiate further fall towards 10111-9951. This trade can be managed after seeing 120-180 points decline from 10594.

Exit the trade and wait for fresh opportunity if stoploss triggers.

BANK NIFTY ANALYSIS

“Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty” with “Bank Nifty Weekly Options Trading Strategies” Daily is also provided by one of my personally trained student Vinod Sharma on his website http://www.ewanalyst.com/ Links to some of his analysis Reports are: –

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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