Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 15 Nov 2016

| November 15, 2016

Nifty opened gap down on Friday at 8456 and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined more than 230 points before closing 229 points down at 8296. It was again a big range day with huge gap down.

Yesterday, 8437 was the breakeven point and Selling was suggested if break or open below 8437 using stoploss of 8467 expecting minimum targets 8368-8348 and further even touch of 8347 can initiate further decline towards 8177. Buying was advised only after seeing 38% retracement/bounce of whole decline from 8598. Nifty broke below 8437 and decline towards 8348 without touching stoploss 8467 followed by break below 8348 later in the day. Let’s have fresh look a latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am covering move from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825 and previous waves counts are explained in my all time frames report Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty for All Time Frames as on 18 July 2016.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 15 Nov 2016

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 15 Nov 2016

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering move from 29 Feb low 6825.

Nifty bounced from 6825 to 8968 without any reasonable correction but with overlapping of waves in the middle. So it is very difficult to identify any confident counts. Though, I tried to mark casual counts on chart but these counts are not making sense and clarity.

The only factor we can observe is that Nifty corrected more than 38% first time after bouncing from 8625. 38% retracement of whole bounce from 6825-8968 is 8149 whereas Nifty declined till 8002. Next 61% retracement is placed at 7643 which may or may not be achieved.

Let’s have a separate look at decline from 8968 to find any clues for next move.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 15 Nov 2016

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 15 Nov 2016

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering move from yearly high 8968.

Here also, there is repeated overlapping of waves followed by a huge gap down of more than 500 points. And this huge gap down is making it difficult for me to mark wave counts. First time I have seen a gap down of about 500 points practically in my whole analysis career (rather than 500 points decline in Aug 2015), so there is some lack of confidence.

Overall, it looks like a Double Zigzag with huge wave (c) of 2nd (abc) cycle. Inner wave ‘v’ of last (c) in this case is highly extended which retraced back completely with same speed (personality of extended wave 5).

So, this pattern can be (abc), Double Zigzag or may turn into Triple Zigzag or may be something else which I am not able to identify confidently.

So, I will concentrate on very last wave started from 09 Nov 2016 low 8002 until I see the clarity on bigger pattern.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 15 Nov 2016

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 15 Nov 2016

This is 5 minutes chart of Nifty covering move from 9 Nov 2016 low 8002.

The bounce from 8002-8348 looks impulsive and can be wave (A), Nifty covered these 346 points in just 20 minutes, next decline from 8348-8117 can be wave (B) which retraced exactly 50% and next wave (C) may be completed from 8177-8598 as shown on chart.

This (abc) wave from 8002-8598 may be “wave (x) of Complex Correction”, or “part of Irregular Correction” or “inner wave (i) of Ending Diagonal Triangle”.

Further, decline from 8598 looks like an impulsive move where inner wave (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv) is completed and wave (v) is started from 8398. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 8312-8258 whereas next 100% projection is placed at 8173.

38%-61% retracement of whole decline from 8598 progressed till now is placed at 8403-8478.

Conclusion:

There is no conclusion for medium term as there is lack of confidence in clarity of waves of whole decline started from 8698. But for short term, decline towards 8200-8177 is possible in next sessions where we need to wait for a bounce to conclude further moves.

For Trading Point of View:

Those who are holding shorts after break below 8437 can try to book profit around 8200-8177 range and wait for bounce to decide any further trade. An impulse is likely to complete around 8177 and pattern of further bounce will help to identify next move.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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