Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 14 Jan 2015

| January 14, 2015

Nifty opened gap up today on 13 Jan 2015 but didn’t sustained at higher levels. Nifty consolidated at top whole day in 8325 to 8356 range but declined 90 points sharply after touching morning high again in last session. Finally Nifty closed 23 points down at 8299. Let see what charts are suggesting. Let me familiarize you with some conditional analysis first:

Conditions 1

Nifty EW Analysis by Deepak Kumar

Nifty EW Analysis by Deepak Kumar

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8066. If we take first move from 8066 to 8303 as wave (1 or A) and next decline from 8303 to 8190 as wave (2 or B) then next upside wave started from 8190 must be wave (3 or C). As shown on chart.

Last upside wave started from 8190 has taken more time than first upside wave (8066 to 8303). As we know wave 3 must be faster than wave 1 but here wave (3 or C) took more time than wave (1 or C) to cover 100% projection. It suggest that last upside wave may not be wave (3 or C) and it may be wave 1, 2 and 3 from 8066 to 8303 and next upside move from 8190 may be wave 5.

Let us move to Conditions 2

Nifty EW Analysis by Deepak Kumar

Nifty EW Analysis by Deepak Kumar

This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering intraday move of 13 Jan 2014. If we see at top, first top of morning was 8355.90 and second top of afternoon was 8356.40. Thus, it eliminated the possibilities of wave 1, 2 and 3 as wave 2 can never correct more than 100% of 1. So, it might be waves “abc” as “Irregular Correction”. And if it is “abc” then Nifty need to go above high 8356 once again.

After observing the both conditions it seems that wave (5) may not be completed yet as condition 2 is suggesting upside above 8356 again and condition 1 is suggesting that the whole move after 8190 is not wave ( 3 or C).   So, after a long reasoning I came with the possibilities as shown below.

Most possible counts based on above complex conditions:

Nifty EW Analysis by Deepak Kumar

Nifty EW Analysis by Deepak Kumar

This is again 5 minutes chart of Nifty covering move after 8066 which I am assuming as the start of an impulse. It seems,

  • Wave 3 completed at 8303.
  • Wave 4 may be a complex correction (Double Zigzag but with failure 2nd “abc” as it failed to break below 1st “abc”) which completed at 8205. There are possibilities for wave 4 as complex correction as wave 2 was simple Zigzag.
  • Wave 5 is in progress that can complete somewhere in 8360 to 8418 range followed by sharp decline. The close look of expected wave 5 is shown in next chart:

Close Look of expected wave (5) as Ending Diagonal Triangle:

Nifty EW Analysis by Deepak Kumar

Nifty EW Analysis by Deepak Kumar

This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty showing move after 8205 which I am expecting as start of wave (5) as Ending Diagonal Triangle.

  1. It seems all wave (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv) till now completed as “abc” waves.
  2. Wave (iii) projected exactly 123% of (i) and wave (v) has possibilities to project at least 61% which is placed at 8360.
  3. Wave 2 is Simple Zigzag and wave 4 was “Irregular Correction” which carries the exceptional rule of alternation.

Other Possibility:

If we assume that wave (5) as ED is already completed at 8356 as per my previous counts and later yesterday correction is for whole impulse started from 8066 to 8356 then there may be a very quick upside move and Nifty can go beyond 8600 in very quick time.

But the only doubt is that (5) gone extended here with more than 61% projection but next decline not achieved the 100% retracement of wave (5) which we see normally in case of extended 5th wave.

In this case the upside move must be quick. But if you see some stop or break of up move around 8360 to 8418 with “abc” structure then you can expect the possibility I explained above.

Conclusion:

I could have waited for clear signs and avoided analysis in these conditions. I analyzed and explained just to show you how and why we need to consider every condition and possibility while analyzing and how closer look at latest move on chart on lowest time frame can help us to identify abnormalities and for perfection in our analysis. Just watch and observe how Nifty is going to reacts today.

Must Read,  Why You Must Learn Elliott Wave Analysis from Deepak Kumar

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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