If you are reading my analysis report first time then I will advise you to refer my previous reports (given below) to understand Elliott wave analysis report for 10 Nov 2014 better.
- Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for All time Frames Dated 18 Oct 2014
- Nifty May Start Correction From 8359-8418 Range – Elliott Wave Analysis for 03 Nov 2014
- Nifty can be Sold with 8393 Spot as Stoploss – Elliott Analysis dated 06 Nov 2014
I am showing monthly time bar chart of Nifty once again to see if there is any change in long term.
This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty and there is no reasonable change in Nifty long term pattern. We can still identify a Triangle like structure at the top that I mentioned in the analysis report of 18 Oct 14.
Let me show you the triangle like structure of (Chart 1) closely on daily chart:
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty showing move after 7118 that I assumed as the progress of Ending Diagonal in my previous reports. Waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are completed as shown on chart and last wave 5 is in progress. Wave 5 we can expect a three waves move (abc) as ED has 3-3-3-3-3 structure which is (abc-abc-abc-abc-abc).
It is not clear if move from 7224 to 8364 is just (a) of (abc) or complete (abc) because of gaps and steepness of wave.
- If it is just (a) of (abc) then we can expect a good correction followed by new high again to complete Ending Diagonal. But correction should not break below the lower line of Triangle (lower red line) in this case.
- If the move from 7724 to 8364 is complete (abc) then also we can see a correction that can break below the lower line of Triangle.
- Break above the high again may show a new pattern that can be identifying only after upside break.
Note: The move after 7118 till all time high may not be an Ending Diagonal but we will assume it till it is fulfilling the criteria. Assumption of this ED only helped us to predict the move from 7724 to new high successfully and this move is following all the rules of ED till now.
Closer look of the move after 7724 till 8364 is on (Chart 3):
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 7724 till high 8864. Counts are same as I described in my previous report. Wave (5) seems to be completed at 8864 with 123% projection making it extremely extended. I am assuming wave (5) completion at 8864 because there is identification of Ending Diagonal at the top and ED is always an end of an Impulse.
Even if it is not an end of wave (5), it is end of any impulse because ED is there at the top and we can always expect some correction after the end of impulsive. That is the reason I suggested to sell Nifty with 8393 spot in my last report and Nifty shown the correction from top.
Now, we need to see the latest move closely on 5 minutes time bar chart to identify the next probabilities.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8266 which is start of smallest wave 5th of (5). This move from 8266 to 8364 formed the structure of Ending Diagonal I explained in my last report. Nifty broken the lower line of Triangle and declined sharply till 8290 but bounced back with overlapping of waves.
Down move after 8364 to 8290 looks like (abc) but next up move after the low of 8290 doesn’t looks like start of impulse because price is overlapping and also moving in wedge. May be there is a formation of complex correction for lower levels but I am not sure about the pattern yet as corrections are always difficult to identify in advance.
So, what to do when we are not sure about pattern?
I always say, we must avoid corrections unless we are experienced. We must wait for identification of clear pattern for fresh trade. If you want to trade correction then you must make strategy like I did.
I sold 2 lots at high Friday with stoploss of 8393 as I mentioned in my previous report because I had clear stoploss in mind. I caught perfect top but as nothing is sure, I booked 1 lot with 50 points profit and holding 1 lot with high as stoploss. Because, nifty should not break above high if correction is not completed (Irregular B can go above high again). I am expecting more correction but not able to find pattern, so I am taking advantage of previous trade and holding with high as stoploss.
Some of my subscriber asked me common questions:
Where to take the start of wave and which time chart to be used?
You can see and observe in this report how and where I taken the start of wave. Every turning point is start of new wave either it is smaller wave or bigger wave. Try to understand Wave’s Cycles deeply and you every doubt will be cleared. And also see which time frame chart I am using for different terms.
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