Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty using All Time Frames

| May 29, 2017

Nifty is trading at new all time high and bounced more than 250 points in last 02 sessions. Our most of the wave counts were completing at previous high 9532 but a new wave has been started which breached 9532. So, we need to revise previous wave counts to check or identify the position of very last wave started from 9341.

So, today I am revising wave counts on all time frames to see if I can identify something different or interesting. Let’s start with a monthly chart covering life time move of Nifty.

This analysis is further update on my last “All time Frame” report. This report is just casual update and read my previous All tine Frames report Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on All Time Frames – Long Term Outlook for detailed explanation and long term outlook.

Elliott wave count of nifty on monthly chart

Elliott wave count of nifty on monthly chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering life time move of Nifty. It seems inner wave {[v] of [3] of (iii) of Biggest (3)} is in progress on largest time frame or on main wave cycle of Nifty. Please read the counts on chart carefully and detailed explanation of these counts is given in my previous all time frame report.

On long term, there is no change in wave counts on this chart.  Counts on chart are indicating that Nifty have long wave to go with occasional corrections but it will not help us to calculate upside levels of very last wave [v]. Because wave [v] already projected more than 61% and achieved all minimum requirements.

So, we need to analyze wave [v] started from 6825 separately on lowest time frame chart to check if wave [v] completed or not.

Elliott wave count of nifty on daily chart

Elliott wave count of nifty on daily chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 6825 which I am expecting as start of wave [v] on monthly chart.

Again, there is no major change in wave counts on this chart, just wave became extended. It seems inner wave (3) of [v] completed at 8936, (4) completed at 7893 and (5) is in progress.

Here also inner wave (5) of [v] already achieved its minimum projections and already projected more than 61%. Next 100% projection for wave (5) is placed at 10036 which may or may not be achieved.

So, this chart also will not help to calculate any minimum upside levels because Minimum is already achieved.

Now, let’s try to analyze progress of wave (5) of [v] separately on lower time frame and check if we can get something.

Elliott wave count of nifty on 5 hourly chart

Elliott wave count of nifty on 5 hourly chart

This is 5 hour time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 7893 which I am expecting as start of wave (5) of [v] on previous chart.

The bounce from 7893 is very steep and sharp with gaps and without even 23% correction within it. We can identify many small Impulsive waves and corrections within this wave but the whole combination of smaller waves are not giving any clarity that which wave is going on this chart.

It is easy to identify wave positions if we there is any 23%-38% or 61% correction within a move, but a sharp bounce of about 1800 points without even 23% correction is making it tough.

Casually, this bounce is still carrying the personality of wave 3 [sharp and steep with gaps] but this bounce is wave (5) on larger wave cycle and is already extended. So, there is lack of confidence.

Now further, 23%-38% retracement of this whole wave is placed at 9200-8950. So, 8950 is the reversal point for medium term. And we need to wait for 400-650 points correction or any corrective pattern to form to calculate further waves on medium term.

And very immediate Nifty movement can be calculated by analyzing very last impulsive wave started from 9341 only using lowest time frame. So, let’s analyze bounce started from 9341 on 5 minute chart to calculate very short term movement.

Elliott wave count of nifty on 5 minute chart

Elliott wave count of nifty on 5 minute chart

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9341 which I am expecting as start of new impulse.

The sharp bounce started from 9341 is impulsive and it seems wave (1), (2) and (3) of this impulsive are already completed till 9604.

Normal 23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 9557-9528. So, 38% retracement 9528 is the level we can refer as Reversal or breakeven point and stoploss for longs. And 9557-9528 is the range from where Nifty has possibility to bounce for new high again.

Conclusion:

There is no major change in wave counts on long and medium term charts. Longs term outlook is still strong and Nifty have long way to go but with 23%-38% correction in between, though corrections can be deeper.

But waves already achieved minimum projections on long and medium term charts and corrective wave can start any time in coming day. So, we need to concentrate on lowest time frame to get the hint of any big reversal or start of any big corrective pattern.

For short term, Nifty achieved new life time high 9604 but still have possibility of bit higher levels. 9557-9528 is the general range from where Nifty can bounce for new high again and 9528 can be referred as reversal/breakeven point or stoploss for longs.

Trading Point of View:

  1. Profit must be booked in Nifty Jun 9500 calls taken on Thursday because this call bounced from 61 to 150 and it seems wave (3) is already completed or near to completion within bounce started from 9341. Profit must be booked and wait any confident corrective pattern to form for next low risk high reward trading entry.
  1. Nifty if decline towards 9535-9528 then light longs can be initiated again in 9535-9528 range using stoploss of 9499 (30 points below 9528) expecting minimum target of new high.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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