Nifty opened gap up today at 8462 followed by a sharp bounce till 8530 where it consolidated for rest of the day in 8531-8505 range before closing 69 points up at 8532. Nifty also achieved 8507-8548 which possibility I mentioned in yesterday’s report after seeing yesterday’s consolidation at top.
I was struggling to identify any confident wave counts from last 2 sessions but present wave’s structure is indicating the possibilities of break above 8561. Let me show you the probable counts.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after June 2015 low of 7940 which I was expecting as completion of impulse at 8561 followed by the start of corrective decline but now the structure seems different.
May be it is just wave 3 which completed at 8497 followed by wave 4 as Irregular Correction which completed at 8315. And later bounce from 8315 may be wave 5 in progress which needs to break previous high 8561 and can go higher till 50-61% projection which is placed at 8601-8667.
We need to analyze bounce from 09 July’s low 8315 on separate 5 minutes chart which is also suggesting bit higher levels.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 09 July’s low 8315 which I am expecting as completion of wave 4 and start of wave 5.
Start of this wave is difficult to identify but we can see impulse pattern after 8425 with clear corrective waves in between. If we see at top, there is an “abc” correction after an impulse. No matter if we don’t count previous waves but Nifty can bounce minimum till 8540-8561 which is 38%-61% projection of wave 5 identifies at top (shown as small red numbers). And Nifty should not break below 8503 which is end of small inner most waves 4 at top. Further move can be calculated when Nifty reach at 8561.
Minimum higher levels of 8561 or above looks possible after seeing latest charts and Nifty should not break below 8503 before 8561. So, stoploss for longs should be 8503 which is end of last smallest correction.
It is early to predict nearby top and further scenario can be analyzed if/when Nifty breaks above 8561.