Elliott Wave analysis of Nifty for 12 Nov 2014

| November 11, 2014

Nifty is still holding tight and consolidating at top as I mentioned yesterday. Any script should not hold for so long after completion of highly extended 5th wave. And if it was not 5th then only option is wave 3 and if it is wave 3 then a 5th must be upside. Range bound consolidation with volatility and overlapping of waves still creating hesitations.

This analysis report is just for study purpose and approach to identify complex pattern. Yesterday I expected a upside move of at least 30-40 points from closing levels and Nifty shown that move but still closed today within range without showing any clear signal. Let’s see on chart:

NIfty Elliott Wave Analysis for 12 Nov

NIfty Elliott Wave Analysis for 12 Nov

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty showing only last 2 days of move.

Nifty is forming (ABC) like wave after bouncing from recent low 8290. The move from 8290 to 8383 doesn’t looks like a clean impulse but looks like (ABC). The whole pattern is seems like I plotted on chart.

This pattern is indicating nifty to touch 8393 to 8413 at least without breaking below 8304. Possibilities of higher levels are also there but let us see how Nifty reacts tomorrow. The weakness can only be seen below 8304 now.

Nifty should not go below 8304 from present levels to maintain short term strength. And if Nifty managed to show new high, it should not break below 8322 after hitting new high. The picture may be cleared tomorrow.

After seeing the consolidation of 5 sessions, I bough Nifty Futures today at 8357 when Nifty spot was around 8325 after seeing more than 61% correction of previous wave with 8304 Spot as stoploss. I am still holding that long position and stoploss modified to 8351 spot {top of wave (i)}. I will exit my longs tomorrow with small profit if Nifty even touched 8351 spot. I bough Nifty because there is no sign of weakness yet and I also seen 61% correction of previous wave. Holding with stoploss well above my cost and will see tomorrow if I need to hold or exit.

I am sharing my trade just to show that you can always take positions in any trend when you are using EW analysis. Because Elliott Wave Principles gives you fix stoploss. I bought because there was low risk of just 20 points, charts were not showing weakness and majority is waiting for fall. But market always goes against majority. I took low risk with very small stoploss of 20 points and now I am secured with my position unless Nifty open 40 points gap down tomorrow. Now, I have time to decide if I have to hold or exit after seeing tomorrows move. May be this trade give me handsome profit or just small profit.  You can’t make money in stock market unless you take risk, but risk must be calculated with strict discipline.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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