Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 11 March 2015

| March 10, 2015

This Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 11 March 2015 is same as I provide free to my students and for Rs. 1500 per month to my subscribers daily by email. I am posting report here on my blog as sample. Read Previous Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Nifty at http://sweeglu.com/category/nifty/

Nifty opened mild positive today but trades with weakness for rest of the day. Nifty also achieved 8690 I expected in my yesterday’s Elliott Wave analysis report of Nifty without breaking above 8838. Finally, Nifty closed 45 points down at 8712 after registering day’s high of 8778 and low of 8677. Let’s have a look on latest charts.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 11 March 2015

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 11 March 2015

This is 3o minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after January high of 8996.

Again, there is no change in pattern yet and the whole pattern still looks like a formation of 3 -3 -5 Irregular Correction where wave (B) exceeds beyond wave (A) and progressed exactly 123% of (A).

After Irregular wave (B), wave (C) already achieved 61% projection at 8793 whereas 100% and 123% for wave (C) are placed at 8596 and 8470 respectively. On the other hand, we can always expect (C) to cross the end of wave (A) which is at 8473. Let’s see the progress of wave (C) on 5 minutes chart to identify if there is any change in pattern.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 11 March 2015

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 11 March 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty showing move after latest high 9117 which I am expecting as the start of wave (C) downwards.  There are so many labels I marked on chart for bigger, inner and inner most waves. Please don’t be confused and try to read every wave and its inner waves step by step.

I just marked waves but didn’t shown calculations for the sake of clarity. You can refer the chapter “Calculations and Personalities of waves” and calculate Fibonacci ratios of every single wave I marked. All the calculations of waves are perfect in these patterns; practice yourself to get good learning experience.

It seems wave (1) and (2) of (C) are completed and wave (3) in Progress. And within wave (3), inner waves (i) is completed and (ii) is either completed or in progress. Inner wave (i) of (3) already projected till 80% of (1) which is suggesting a big and fast decline ahead.

Wave (3) took more time to achieve 100% of (1) than time taken by wave (1) which is not normal but these are the only possible wave counts I can identify on charts after lots of calculations and reading personalities.

If these counts are correct then there may be a quick and big fall in next 1 -3 sessions as if inner wave (i) of (3) is 80% of whole (1) then complete wave (3) can be highly extended. And whenever wave (3) starts slower than wave (1), there is extended move most of the time.

But, decline should be sharp and must start immediately and Nifty should not break above 8780 to keep this pattern as wave 2 can never go beyond the start of wave 1. So, the immediate stoploss for positional/existing shorts must be 8780 to protect if I am wrong in identifying waves and if the wave I am identifying as (3) is actually wave (c).

Conclusion:

Current Scenario on charts is suggesting the possibilities for more decline, may be till 8596 and below but should not break above 8780 to keep the pattern running and decline must be faster. So, stoploss for existing shorts must be 8780 to protect if I am wrong at identifying.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (8)

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  1. manooj.c says:

    sir stop loss trig ??? reply

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Mar Manooj,

      This was the stop loss I suggested for 11 March 2015 and this was old analysis report. Please take these reports for market view only and not for trading because market can change patterns frequently and change levels to but I don’t update my analysis report everyday here. I send daily reports only to my clients by email. So, whatever analysed 2 day’s back may not be valid today.

  2. HIREN says:

    Deepakji,
    I also thought upper move upto 8944 or near level should come then near to 8400. which is still pending. But this time fomc meeting is very trend changer. Lets c how market reacts with it.

  3. GHANSHYAM says:

    today what wave happen?sir …

  4. Shammi Theodore says:

    Dear Deepak,
    Nice to see someone following the elliot wave principle. Just want to share some of my thoughts. I think the current wave structure may also mean that wave 1 of C is over and 2 is in progress. Wave 2 looks like a flat correction and may end up near 8780. This alternative count came to my mind as soon as I saw the daily chart in both bar and candlestick form.

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Shammi,

      May be you are correct at your point. But There are no two different patterns in same move in Elliott Wave Theory either you see in Daily Chart or 5 minutes chart and lower time frame chart is more accurate. Inner waves of bigger wave must be convincing. If you are seeing clear five waves from 9117 to 8677 then it may be just wave 1 of C.

      But let me tell you, If wave 1 is 440 points then whole impulse (c) can go 1200 to 2000 points. Just a rough calculation. And it is not necessary if it is wave (c) only, it may be something else, It is what I am concluding after seeing all Daily, Hourly, 30 Minutes and 5 minutes chart and after performing lots of calculation and also after counting every inner wave.

  5. rajveer says:

    looks like the US Market broke its 50 dma yesterday and is headed to its 200 dma, nifty’s 200 dma is near 8100, so we may eventually head there.

  6. ak says:

    Tomorrow we may see dead cat bounce after opening lower