Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 11 Mar 2019 Onward

| March 11, 2019

Nifty opened lower at 11038, traded in narrow range of 40 points between 11008-11049 and finally closed 22 points down at 11035.

Friday, 11017-10972 was immediate support and 10972 was downside breakeven point. And downside reversal was expected after break below 10972 only. One more bounce of 120-180 points was expected without breaking below 10972.

Trading strategy was to buy Nifty if get in 10990-10972 range using stoploss of 10955 expecting bounce of 120-180 points from last low. Nifty traded above 10990 for whole day, so trade was not activated. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on daily chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. There is no change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress.

Point of Cautions: – The reversal after completion of Irregular Correction is known to be sharp but the bounce after 10004 is slower when compared to the speed of wave (c) of Irregular Correction. So, we need to be cautious for one more low below 10004.

Now, let’s analyse the bounce started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 5 hourly chart

This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1)

From high 10985, the downside Impulse completed from 10985-10534 can be marked as wave (A). Irregular wave (B) may be completed from 10534-11118 with inner wave [a] from 10534-10923, [b] may be completed at 10923-10583, [c] from 10583-11118 and wave (C) may be completed at 10585 or still in progress.

Wave (C) achieved normal 100%-123% projection, registered low 10585 and retraced about 90%, so maybe it is already completed at 10585 or there is some other pattern going on. Nifty can bounce sharply for new life time high if wave (C) is already completed at 10585.

Let’s analyze the progress of wave (C) separately on lowest time frame chart to check if an Impulse pattern is completed or not.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11118 which I marked as start of wave (C) of Irregular Correction on 5 hourly charts.

An Impulse is already completed from 11118-10620 with highly extended inner wave (v) but we can’t say confidently if wave (C) is already completed because there is a 3 waves (abc) decline at bottom from 10756-10585.

This (abc) decline from 10756-10585 is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction and warning cautions for one more decline for low below 10585 without breaking above 11118 but the bounce after 10585 already registered high 11089 (near 11118) whereas pattern doesn’t seems completed.

There are conflicts in overall pattern so I am ignoring the pattern of decline from 11118-10585 and concentrating on the pattern of bounce after 10585 only.

After 10585, the impulse seems completed from 10585-10939 and same can be marked as wave (a or 1), wave (b or 2) may be completed from 10939-10751 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 11105-11188 whereas Nifty registered high 11089.

Now, let’s analyse the progress of wave (c or 3) separately on lowest possible time frame.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 15 minutes chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10751 which I marked as start of wave (c or 3) on hourly chart.

It seems inner wave (i) may be completed from 10751-10857 as Leading Diagonal Triangle (LD), wave (ii) may be completed from 10857-10785 as Double Zigzag Correction, wave (iii) may be completed from 10785-11052 and wave (iv) or (v) may be in progress.

If we assume wave (iv) already completed at 10998 then minimum 38% projection for wave (v) is placed at 11112.

23%-38% retracement of wave (iii) is placed at 10988-10950. So, 10988-10950 is immediate support and 10950 is immediate downside breakeven point. There is possibility of one more bounce of 114-160 as wave (v).

(I calculated 23%-38% retracement from end of wave (iii) 11052 rather than from 11089 because wave (v) has not achieved minimum 38% projection yet and there is still a possibility for wave (iv) to be Irregular Correction).

There is overlapping within the bounce after 10998, so let’s look at this bounce after 10998 on separate 5 minute chart.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 5 minutes chart

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 10998 which I marked as end of  inner wave (iv) of (c or 3) on 15 minutes chart.

The bounce from 10998-11089 consists of 3 upside impulsive waves connected with 2 corrective waves and Impulsive waves are overlapped. This structure is following the rules of Leading Diagonal Triangle (LD) and if this pattern is LD than it must be wave [1].

Now, if LD completed from 10998-11089 is wave [1] then wave [2] should not break below 10998, so 10998 is pattern negation point for LD. Means Nifty must bounce for new high above 11089 without breaking below 10998 if I am right at identifying the pattern, otherwise the possibility of LD will get negated if Nifty even touches 10997.

But Nifty already registered low 11009 and there is Irregular Correction at bottom again, so one more low below 11009 is possible without breaking above 11089.

So, overall conditions are indicating that Nifty can register one more low between 11009-10998 without breaking above 11089 and then can bounce for new high above 11089 again without breaking below 10998. So, conditions on this chart are indicating tricky sideways move ahead.

There is one more possibility on same chart, let’s have a look.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 5 minutes chart

This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 10998 which I marked as inner wave (iv) of (c or 3) on 15 minutes chart.

It is also possible that inner wave [1] of (v) completed from 10998-11050 followed by Irregular Correction as wave [2]. All other conditions are same as I explained in 1st 5 minutes chart because wave [2] should not break below 10998, there is possibility of Irregular Correction at 11009.

Conclusion

For Medium: – There are conflicts and confusion on medium term outlook because of the following: –

  1. The Irregular Correction at top on daily chart is indicating sharp bounce for new high above 11760 but the bounce after 10004 is very slow and warning cautions for one more decline below 10004.
  • Again Irregular Correction at top on 5 hourly chart is indicating bounce for high above 11118 but Irregular Correction at bottom on hourly chart is warning cautions for low below 10585.

Overall, there are conflicts within patterns on Daily, 5 Houlry and hourly chart. So, we can ignore medium term outlook for time being and must concentrate on lowest time frame to calculate immediate move until the pattern on higher time frames gets clear.

For short term: – 11088-11050 is immediate support and 10950 is immediate downside breakeven point. There is possibility of one more bounce of 114-160 from present levels or from fresh low but without breaking below 10950. But Nifty if breaks and stay below 10972 for 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 10751.

Very immediate or Intraday conditions are tricky and sideways, conditions are indicating that Nifty can register one more low between 11009-10998 without breaking above 11089 and then can bounce for new high above 11089 again without breaking below 10998.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

10988-10950 is support range and 10950 is breakeven point. 10950 is the deciding point from where a bounce of 114-160 points or decline towards 10751-10585 can be expected.

So, small risk can be taken to buy Nifty if get in 10988-10950 range using exact stoploss of 10949 expecting bounce of at least 114-160 point. Nifty can bounce from present levels also but 10988-10950 is low risk buying range.

We can think of any selling only if Nifty stay below 10950. Entry levels and stoploss for selling can be calculated after break below 10950 only.

For Intraday, Nifty if get in 11009-10998 range then small risk of 10 points can be taken to buy Nifty using exact stoploss of 10997 expecting bounce towards 11089 again. But Nifty if bounce straightway near 11089 without breaking below 11009 then small risk can be taken to sell Nifty using exact stoploss of 11091 expecting decline towards 11009. Don’t take risk of more than 12-15 points and be strict to intraday trade only.

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in such conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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