Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook of Nifty for 10 April 2017 Onward

| April 9, 2017

Nifty opened lower at 9223 and bounced to register day’s high 9250 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined again to register new day’s low 9188 before closing 63 points down at 9198.

Yesterday, 9249 was breakeven point and suggested to sell Nifty even if touch 9248 using stoploss of 9267 expecting minimum target 9214-9177 and try to protect profit in 9214-9177 range because Nifty can bounce again from this range. Positional Hedged trade taken by Buying 9200 Call and Selling Nifty Futures in equal quantity suggested holding till further updates. Nifty achieved 9214-9177 range. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am covering bounce from 03 Mar 2017 low 8860 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook of Nifty for 03 April 2017 Onward

Elliott Wave counts of Nifty for 10 April 2017

Elliott Wave counts of Nifty for 10 April 2017

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 8860 which I am expecting as start of new impulse on 2nd daily chart in previous analysis report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is completed and wave (v) is started from 9019. Wave (iv) retraced deeper than 38%. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 8155-9240 whereas end of wave (iii) is 9218. So, wave (v) needed to achieve minimum 9218-9240.

Wave (v) already achieved 61% projection after break above 9240 and is in extended zone (high made 9273), so let’s have a closer look at progress of wave (v) started from 9019 on separate 15 minutes chart to check if the pattern is completed or not.

Elliott Wave counts of Nifty for 10 April 2017

Elliott Wave counts of Nifty for 10 April 2017

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9019 which I am expecting as progress of wave (v) on previous 30 minute chart.

It seems, wave (1) may be completed from 9019-9131 (inner wave (v) is highly extended), wave (2) may be completed from 9131-9024 as Irregular Correction, wave (3) may be completed from 9024-9273 and  wave (4) may be in progress.

In my last report, I explained that wave (3) may be completed at 9149 but the decline from high 9273 was not indicating any big reversal and bounce from 9024-9273 is still straight without any reasonable correction. So, maybe it is wave (3) completed at 9273 and wave (5) is still pending. Inner waves of recent move are not identifiable which is making it difficult to identify exact pattern.

Now, if wave (3) completed at 9273 than 23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 9214-9177. So, 9177 is the point we can refer as medium term breakeven or reversal. And Nifty have possibility to bounce again above 9273 form 9214-9177 range.

Let’s have a separate look at decline from 9273 on 5 minute chart.

Elliott Wave counts of Nifty for 10 April 2017

Elliott Wave counts of Nifty for 10 April 2017

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 9273.

The decline from 9273-9220 look like an impulse which could be wave (A or 1), bounce from 9220-9267 looks 3-3-5 Flat correction which can be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 9267 which must be impulse.

Pattern of wave (C or 3) looks like an impulse with highly extended inner wave (v). Now, 38% retracement of wave (C or 3) is placed at 9218 which can taken as reference point of stoploss of shorts and breakeven point for very short term. Nifty if breaks above 9218 can bounce further for new high above 9273.

Conclusion:

Nifty is at new high and most of the waves are in extended zone but the pattern is still not seems completed. There is no sign of reversal but highly extend wave are warning cautions at higher levels. On the other hand, I have marked most probable counts by keeping in mind the Fibonacci projections of previous waves but inner waves are not completely clear.

So, trades on either must be protected with strict stoploss or must be hedged.

For medium term, 9177 is the level with can refer as breakeven or reversal point for downside. And for short term, 9218 is the breakeven point above which Nifty can bounce further for new high above 9273. And we needs to keep all these conditions in mind while initiating any trade.

Trading Point of View:

According to conditions we identified on charts: –

  1. Nifty April Futures sold and Nifty April 9200 Call bought in equal quantity on 06 April can be hold with stoploss of 9221 (3 Points above 9218). This trade must be in 15-20 points profit at present. Exit this trade if Nifty even touches 9221.
  1. For Intraday or very short term, Nifty if even touch 9221 (3 points above 9218) can be bought at 9221 using stoploss of 9199 expecting minimum target 9273 and above. Start protecting profit by trailing stoploss once break above 9273.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"