Nifty again opened gap up at 8260 and traded with positive bias rest of the day. Nifty bounced more than 100 points from previous close to register day’s high 8308 before closing 8287.
Yesterday, stoploss for existing/positional longs (taken after break above 8111 with stoploss 8093) and breakout point was 8146 expecting minimum upside levels 8249-8294. Further I mentioned that Nifty needs to open good gap up and stay above 8249 for further upside (to gain the personality of wave 3), so we need to see how Nifty behaves in 8249-8294. Nifty opened above 8249, achieved 8294 and stayed above 8249 for the day. So, let’s have fresh look at further wave counts.
Today I am showing move after 29 Feb 2016 low 6825 as Nifty broke previous high 8294.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering move from 29 Feb low 6825. Though this bounced progressed with lots of overlapping of waves which made it tough to identify counts but still I am marking most probable counts based on my understanding.
Nifty broke previous high 8294, so we need have a new look for further probabilities. By casual look it seems an impulse completed from 6825-7992 which could be wave (A) of (1), decline 7992-7678 may be wave (B) or (2) and wave (C) or (3) may be in progress from 7678.
Minimum 61% projection for wave (C) is placed at 8399 and minimum 100% projection for wave (3) is placed at 8845. 61% projection at 8399 is very much possible but 8845 is not confident seeing present wave’s structure so we need to look at inner wave counts for further progress.
There is overlapping within the progress of wave (3) or (C) so we need to wait for clarity. We need to concentrate on last bounce from 7927 to conclude further probabilities and to make further trading plans.
This is 5 minutes chart of Nifty covering move from 24 June low 7927 which I am expecting as a progress of new impulse upside.
Earlier there were both the possibilities for this move to be (ABC) or (123) because bounce from 8056 was getting slower and 8175-8249 was expected in both the cases. So, we were going with both the possibilities as 8249 was expected in both the cases and we were moving with trailing stoploss. Now Nifty achieved 8249 and the bounce from 8056 is gaining speed with gaps giving the indications of wave (3). So, as per latest scenario,
It may be wave (1) completed from 7927-8120, wave (2) completed from 8120-8056 and wave (3) may be progress from 8056. Wave (3) seems within its inner wave (iii) indicating more upside from current levels. Further wave (3) needs to break above 8368 (161% projection) to be extended.
Now, we need to look separately at progress of inner wave (ii) of (3) started from 8112 for next immediate levels, stoploss and fresh trading strategies.
This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move from 8112 which I have shown as start of wave (ii) of (3) on earlier 5 minutes chart.
It seems wave (3) is completed at 8308 and (4) may be completed at 8217 or may be completed somewhere with 8271-8233. If wave (4) completed at 8271 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 8345-8392.
38% retracement of whole wave (iii) of (3) progressed till now is placed at 8233 which must be the stoploss of positional longs and will move higher as Nifty moves higher above 8308. So, we needs to watch waves again in 8345-8392 range keeping the stoploss of 38% retracement of whole move started from 8233.
Very Immediate or Intraday stoploss for longs must be 8271 which I have show as start of wave (5) of (iii).
Nifty broke previous high 8294 yesterday and we were following this upside after break of 8111 with trailing stoploss. Now we need to concentrate on smaller time frame step by step for next probabilities, trailing stoploss and fresh trading strategies.
For short term, Nifty has possibility to bounce further till 8345-8392 and stoploss for positional longs (taken after break of 8111 with stoploss 8093 taken on 28 Jun 2016) must be 8233. We need to watch the waves again if Nifty achieves 8345-8392 range with fresh stoploss of 38% retracement of whole bounce started from 8112.
Stoploss for Intraday longs must be 8271 expecting same upside targets 8345-8392. Sign of reversal can be seen only below 8233 so avoid Selling till Nifty is trading above 8233.
Keep strict stoploss on the trades as huge volatility at expiry can turn unprotected trades into huge losses.
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